> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.appliedaifoundation.org/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# Procurement Surveillance
> PR-to-payment funnel analysis — aged POs, forwarder backlog, supplier scorecards, safety-critical pipeline tracking.
Every spare on board started life as a Purchase Requisition. Between PR and the spare being installed there are seven or eight stages — approval, vendor quote, PO release, supplier production, freight booking, forwarder consolidation, port delivery, vessel receipt. A defect that's been "awaiting parts" for ninety days is almost always stuck somewhere in that chain.
The **Procurement Surveillance** pipeline does two things: it tracks every active PO through the funnel, and it surfaces the structural problems — aged POs, supplier underperformance, budget overrun — that systematically slow the funnel down.
## Where the data comes from
| Source | What it provides |
| ----------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Vessel ERP (procurement module)** | PR, PO, approval chain, supplier, invoice, payment status |
| **Freight forwarder integrations** | Consignment tracking, ETA, customs status |
| **ERP supplier master** | Approval status, contracts, payment terms |
| **Currency reference feeds** | FX rates for invoice reconciliation |
| **Email correspondence (chasing)** | Supplier acknowledgements, ETA updates, dispute threads |
Procurement data is mostly ERP-internal. The forwarder layer adds external visibility for the in-transit stage; the email pipeline ([Email Surveillance](/skills/outlook-email-sync)) provides the chase-and-response thread for any PO sitting beyond its stage threshold.
***
## The funnel
```
PR raised ──▶ PO approved ──▶ Supplier confirms ──▶
Goods ready ──▶ Forwarder picks up ──▶ Vessel receives ──▶
Invoice cleared
```
Each transition has a stage threshold:
| Stage | Threshold | What "stuck" means |
| ---------------------------------- | -------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ |
| PR → PO approval | 5 days | Probably an authority-limit or budget-code issue |
| PO → supplier confirmation | 3 days | Supplier didn't acknowledge — chase needed |
| Supplier → goods ready | per quoted lead-time | Production / stock issue |
| Goods → forwarder pickup | 14 days | Forwarder consolidation gap |
| Forwarder → vessel | per route ETA | In transit |
| Vessel receipt → invoice clearance | 7 days | Documentation / accounting |
The pipeline computes time-in-stage for every active PO:
$$
T_\text{stage}(\text{PO}) = t_\text{exit} - t_\text{enter}
$$
A PO sitting beyond the stage threshold is flagged. The aggregate of stuck POs across stages is the funnel-health view.
***
## Three views, three questions
### View 1 — Forwarders backlog
POs with forwarders that haven't yet reached the vessel:
> *"What's in transit, when does it arrive, and is anything safety-critical on board?"*
The view sorts by ETA and surfaces safety-critical items at the top regardless of ETA. A safety-critical spare delayed by a week is a different conversation than a routine stores order delayed by a week.
### View 2 — Open POs older than 180 days
This is the structural-problem view:
> *"What is so old that something is fundamentally wrong with how this PO is being handled?"*
A PO older than 180 days is rarely just "still in transit". It's almost always one of:
* **Cancelled but not closed** — the actual order was cancelled, but the PO record never got updated
* **Supplier abandoned** — supplier stopped responding, no follow-up
* **Wrong vessel** — PO raised against the wrong vessel and never noticed
* **Partial delivery dispute** — some items delivered, dispute on the rest, PO held open
* **Forgotten** — nothing actually happened
This view is the highest-leverage list — most items can be closed with a single phone call, and the closure rate jumps immediately.
### View 3 — Purchase log
End-to-end log from PR raise to invoice clearance:
> *"For audit and analytics — when did each thing happen?"*
This is the structured record the other two views aggregate from. A reviewer rarely reads it in full, but it's the source of truth when there's a question about a specific PO's history.
***
## Supplier scorecards
Per supplier, the pipeline tracks:
$$
\text{On-time \%} = \frac{N_\text{on-time}}{N_\text{total}} \times 100
$$
$$
\bar{T}_\text{lead} = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N} (t_\text{delivered}_i - t_\text{ordered}_i)
$$
Plus quality issues per shipment and recent escalations. A scorecard below 70% on-time triggers a renegotiation flag.
The supplier-quality dimension matters because the same supplier delivering late on five vessels is a fleet-wide problem, not a per-vessel one. The pipeline aggregates supplier metrics across the fleet.
***
## Budget compliance
Per category (technical / stores / lube / victualling / repairs / etc.):
$$
\text{Variance \%} = \frac{\text{Actual} - \text{Budget}}{\text{Budget}} \times 100
$$
Variance over 10% is flagged; over 25% triggers escalation. Cross-references the [financial pipeline](/skills/financial-analyzer) for the year-end forecast view.
***
## Safety-critical pipeline
Items tagged safety-critical get a separate timeline. Any delay against ETA is treated as critical regardless of magnitude. The pipeline assembles a daily list:
| Item | Vessel | Supplier | Stage | Days in stage | ETA |
| -------------------- | ------ | ------------- | -------------- | ------------- | --------------------------- |
| Lifeboat winch motor | POSUN | Schat-Harding | Forwarder | 22 | 2026-05-12 |
| Fire-pump impeller | OCEAN | Wärtsilä | Goods ready | 3 | TBD |
| EEBD canister x4 | NEXUS | Drager | Vessel receipt | 1 | delivered, awaiting receipt |
The list is short by design — most safety-critical items move quickly. Anything sitting on this list more than a few days is escalation-worthy.
***
## Implementation reference
The 180-day filter, condensed:
```python theme={"system"}
# Filter POs older than 180 days that are still open
threshold_date = datetime.utcnow() - timedelta(days=180)
aged_pos = po_collection.aggregate([
{"$match": {
"imo": {"$in": active_imos},
"status": {"$nin": ["CLOSED", "CANCELLED", "INVOICED"]},
"prRaisedDate": {"$lte": threshold_date}
}},
{"$addFields": {
"ageDays": {
"$divide": [
{"$subtract": [datetime.utcnow(), "$prRaisedDate"]},
1000 * 60 * 60 * 24
]
}
}},
{"$sort": {"ageDays": -1}},
])
```
The "with forwarders" view joins POs with the forwarder-tracking collection on the consignment number, then surfaces ETA and safety-critical flag. The full purchase log does the same but across every stage transition.
***
## Worked example: a vessel-level sweep
`MV POSUN`, weekly procurement review:
| View | Count | Notable |
| ----------------------------- | -------------------------: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Forwarders backlog | 18 | 2 safety-critical (one delayed 22 days vs ETA) |
| Open > 180 days | 11 | 6 likely "cancelled but not closed", 3 supplier abandoned, 2 partial-delivery disputes |
| Aged at approval stage | 4 | Awaiting authority approval > 7 days |
| Budget variance | Technical +18%, Stores +6% | Technical category over threshold |
| Supplier scorecards (failing) | 2 | Vendor X 62% on-time, Vendor Y 71% on-time |
**Verdict**: HIGH on the technical-budget overrun + the safety-critical lifeboat-winch delay. The pipeline:
1. Flags the lifeboat-winch motor as the immediate action — supplier and forwarder need a chase today.
2. Generates the 11-PO close-out list with predicted disposition for each.
3. Routes the budget overrun to the [financial pipeline](/skills/financial-analyzer) for variance attribution and year-end forecast.
4. Flags Vendor X for renegotiation review.
***
## Closure-rate trend
Same logic as the [defects pipeline](/skills/defects):
$$
\text{Closure rate} = \frac{N_\text{POs closed in period}}{N_\text{open at start} + N_\text{opened in period}}
$$
A falling closure rate combined with rising aged-PO count is the structural drift indicator.
***
## What the senior review contains
1. **Headline** — open PO count, value, aged count, closure rate, safety-critical pipeline status.
2. **Safety-critical list** — every safety-critical PO not yet on board, with stage and ETA.
3. **Aged POs** — close-out candidates with predicted disposition.
4. **Forwarders backlog** — what's in transit and when it arrives.
5. **Budget compliance** — per-category variance, with cross-link to financial review.
6. **Supplier scorecards** — failing suppliers with renegotiation recommendation.
7. **Closure-rate trend** — chart and verdict.
8. **Recommendations** — prioritised by leverage; close-outs and chase-ups separated from supplier renegotiation.
9. **Escalation decision** — to whom, and why.
***
## Escalation triggers
| Trigger | Severity |
| ----------------------------------------------- | -------- |
| Safety-critical item delayed against ETA | CRITICAL |
| Budget overrun above 25% in any category | HIGH |
| Supplier on-time below 70% with active POs | HIGH |
| PO awaiting approval more than 14 days | HIGH |
| Stuck delivery more than 30 days with no update | CRITICAL |
| Aged-PO count rising for 2+ consecutive periods | HIGH |
***
## Why old POs accumulate
A PO that should have been closed three months ago is rarely an in-flight issue. Most are administrative — the goods arrived, were installed, the engineer logged the spare, and nobody updated the PO record. The pipeline's 180-day filter exists because below 90 days the noise is too high (legitimately in-transit POs are common); below 180 the structural problems are isolated; above 180, the structural problems dominate.
The fastest improvement in procurement metrics on most vessels is closing aged POs. They're already done; they just need to be marked done. A 30-minute review with the chief engineer typically clears half the backlog.
***
## References
Purchase-management suite — POs with forwarders, open POs older than 180 days, and the end-to-end purchase log.
Budget variance attribution and year-end forecast — same numbers, different audience.
"Awaiting parts" defects unblock when the corresponding PO advances — defects and procurement compose.
Critical-spare stockouts surface in PMS Summary and drive procurement priority.